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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple pattern. It often acts as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who engineered the most dramatic resurgence wins the award. In practice, it sparks an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or simply the most shocking surprise.

But the latest competition is distinctly different. The list of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions declining and recent also-rans ascending together. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a wild and thrilling year, he's competing with five other exceptional candidates.

This is how the projected ballot should look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his special ability. From Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. With Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack built solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to conjure big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the immense pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet this isn't a typical year!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for sustained success. However Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his initial public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still