A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
